It’s time once again for the Academy Awards. If you’re having an Oscar party (Sunday, Feb. 24–check local listings) or making bets on this year’s winners, here’s my personal picks for the top five categories.
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BEST PICTURE
Who Should Win:
Zero Dark Thirty, the best film in this category, has become too controversial a topic for Academy members. It will have to settle for classic status and ongoing debate for years to come.
Who Will Win:
The over-praised Lincoln has a real shot, as does Argo. However, the film that gained the most momentum, in terms of audience favor and in the awards circuit, is Silver Linings Playbook, which will likely surprise everyone with a Best Picture statuette.
*****
BEST DIRECTOR
Who Should Win:
Everyone expected Kathryn Bigelow of Zero Dark Thirty and Ben Affleck of Argo to be nominated; their being snubbed hurt the chances of either film winning Best Picture (since the director for the film voted the year’s best is usually the winner).
Who Will Win:
David O’Russell, the respected, acclaimed filmmaker of Silver Linings Playbook.
*****
BEST ACTOR
Who Should Win:
Joaquin Phoenix’s frighteningly raw performance in The Master was the actor comeback of the year, but few saw the film and even fewer liked it.
Who Will Win:
Denzel Washington’s bravely unsympathetic, triumphant performance in Flight would be a front runner in any other year, but the award will definitely go to Daniel Day-Lewis. His portrait of Lincoln was, in a word, amazing.
*****
BEST ACTRESS
Who Should Win:
Jessica Chastain’s starring role as Maya in Zero Dark Thirty was her finest work yet. She is one of the reasons the film continues to be a source of discussion, as we see the story through her eyes but her character Maya, like the film itself, isn’t telling us how we’re supposed to feel about the horrors she witnesses. That’s up to us.
Who Will Win:
2012 was the year of Jennifer Lawrence, who added emotional luster to the hype machine of The Hunger Games and revealed surprising layers in her Oscar nominated turn in Silver Linings Playbook. By the time the second Hunger Games arrives in November, she’ll likely be billed as the “Academy Award Winner Jennifer Lawrence.”
*****
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Should Win:
All the nominees here have won once already, with Christoph Waltz and Alan Arkin being the most recent winners. Philip Seymour Hoffman’s remarkably textured, disturbing portrait of an on-edge cult leader in The Master was one of the show stopping turns of the year.
Who Will Win:
Tommy Lee Jones stole much of Lincoln but who in Hollywood doesn’t love Robert De Niro? The three time Oscar winner hasn’t won since Raging Bull in 1980 and his tremendously moving portrait of an OCD dad in Silver Linings Playbook is one of his best roles in years.
*****
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Should Win:
The Master showcased three of the year’s finest performances. Amy Adams’ frightening depiction as Hoffman’s seemingly pleasant but controlling and venomous wife had an intensity that more than matched her co-stars.
Who Will Win:
Despite appearing in very little of Les Miserables, Anne Hathaway’s haunting performance, the best thing in the film, is the soul of the story.
*****
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who Should Win:
The adorable, brilliantly made Moonrise Kingdom deserves to win for its loopy, dream-like story and unique take on adolescent puppy love gone astray.
Who Will Win:
Since they won’t have the guts to award it Best Picture, the Academy will likely grant Zero Dark Thirty an Oscar for its meticulously crafted screenplay. Expect plenty of boos (some likely from Martin Sheen) when screenwriter Mark Boal claims his prize.
*****
Please don’t blame me if you use my predictions and lose 20 bucks. But if you get any right, brah, I like one Guri-Guri!
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