For those of us watching local races, there was no bigger match-up in the 2012 General Election than that of Democratic Congresswoman Mazie Hirono and Republican Linda Lingle. These two had tangled years before in the Hawaii Governor’s race, and Lingle had made quick work of Hirono, who was then Lieutenant Governor.
But now things seem very, very different. We just noticed this Real Clear Politics post aggregating 10 polls in the race going back to March. The result? At no time from March 24 to Oct. 24 did Lingle ever lead in the polls. What’s worse, at no time did Hirono’s lead drop lower than five percentage points (the most recent poll, from Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG, has Hirono topping Lingle by a whopping 15 percentage points).
“It looks as if the Democratic lean of the state is taking over,” Real Clear Politics wrote on Oct. 15. “The Honolulu Star-Advertiser poll had been the friendliest survey to former Gov. Linda Lingle, but now it shows her Democratic opponent with a double-digit lead. This is quickly losing even long-shot status for Republicans.”
Photo of Linda Lingle: Wikimedia Commons